EARLY SEASON SURPRISES... WILL THEY LAST?
surprise:  one of the best leadoff hitters in the business so far in 2005 is... pj nespor?

will it last?:  you know, i certainly hope so.  as the guy that bats right behind him, i must say our entire season could hang on pj's ability to knock down the singles and doubles and be down low to prevent the double plays.  the way i see it, to be considered one of the best in the business, you need to be considered one of the top two or three in a league of seven leadoff hitters.  as of now, only matt mcclelland and shelley goodpastor are playing better.
i expect pj to keep playing at the level he has been; i think he's finally playing well because he's on a team that might actually win something if he does.  the only way this doesn't last is if one of the other leadoff hitters leaps over him.  unfortunately, i don't see katie kelly giving a hoot down low, glackey continuing his frantic pace, elysa showing up nearly enough, or danielle making enough singles to move ahead of nespor.  so yes, this surprise will last.


surprise:  dennis lackey isn't leading the sbl in psyche-outs

will it last:  sure will.  chicken leg had a great season last year, obliterating the previous psyche-out record.  however, let's keep in mind that the person currently leading the sbl in psyche outs, lenny crist, has been at or near the top of the league for four years now.  dennis is a good baseketball player, but lenny crist lives to psyche out.  it's all he cares about.
furthermore, i went back and did a little research.  of dlack's 18 2004 psyche outs, 7 were handed to him by jared clayton.  without clayton, who was amused beyond belief by the chicken leg, lackey is struggling to match his previous totals, which that is to be expected. 
i think that lackey will make a late-season run and close the gap with crist, but lenny will end up with 12 or so to dennis' 10.


surprise: clayton showed up in week 6.  and he sucked ass.

will it last?:  again, i'm gonna have to go with yes.  first of all, i don't see jared showing up more than once more in this season, so we can't really expect him to get back into "good" status with a 20-homer, 60 rbi campaign. 
even if he does, he's just not comfortable playing with the ladies.  from the time he first set foot in the league, clayton has been extremely tight with his teammates.  he doesn't have that comfort zone playing with weisberg, tomko and co.
on top of that, i doubt clayton could adjust to being just another player on a team of sbl greats.  he's always been the biggest fish in the pond, drilling all the homers and swooping in for all the double plays his heart desired.  again, he can't do that with the ladies.
all in all, there are just too many things saying this will last for me to think it won't.


surprise:  the sbl offenses are just totally going off.

will it last?:  contrary to popular belief, i don't think so.  over the first 7 weeks of the season, we've played at very offensively-friendly courts.  horsecock downs is just ridiculous, but the games at ass clown, k-y, the big house and auschwitz have also all  been high scoring throughout history. 
  with k-unit and anna anzio's getting bumped back, and likely to be thrust into rotation over the final 3 weeks, we can expect some of the defenses to shine at these venues.  both feature unusually high rims, which should cramp the offenses, but both also feature the brewski's which, if you've ever driven a car drunk you know, can hinder your ability to function.
  besides, people's shooting arms have to be getting tired.


surprise:  pj & the ladies have yet to lose a scrum in the 2004 season

will it last?:  most likely not.  thier best scrummer, nate tomko, has been taken out of scrumming action for the remainder of the season thanks to some punk with brass knuckles. (probably hired by koopa troopa)  while big rando knight and billy weisberg are two of the top scrummers in the league and aryn christman has proven her dominance over most of the sbl's female population, it's only a matter of time before someone exploits the ladies weakened scrum lineup for a win.


surprise:  analisa goodthing, after jumping out to a 4-2 mark and leading the american conference, have dropped 6 of 8 and are now second from last in the sbl.

will it last?:  i'm sorry, ben elliott, but yes.  this team is just totally in shambles.  they had one of the best looking lineups in the league at the beginning of the year, but jon olsavsky has all but lost interest in the sbl and elysa farrell has an endless string of reasons not to show up.
  ben deserves to win, he put together a team that should be doing just that.  billy picciotto has come around since missing 3 straight weeks and seems to be back in the flow that had him as a rookie of the year candidate a season ago, but those are the only two things that seem to be going right.  the truth is that this team is just not good without elysa batting leadoff and olsavky's heart in the game.


surprise:  billy weisberg is the third best offensive player.  on his team.

will it last?:  actually, i don't believe this one will.  tomko's the best on this squad, no doubt.  but i do think weisberg will slip past pj nespor as the best offensive player on this team by season's end, he's just more well rounded. 
  billy seemed to break out last weekend with a couple of 3 homer games, including one in which he knocked in 13 baserunners.  if he can keep his shooting on track, he's got more range than nespor, so he'll put up big enough numbers to be considered the second best offensive player on his squad.


surprise:  jeff knight is making terry shernisky sweat on this rookie of the year thing

will it last?:  nope.  jeff's a pretty good player, don't get me wrong, but he's played so much more than shernisky over the past 3 weeks that his numbers have just caught up a bit.  expect to see knight a little less in the yellow mesh, where he gets the bulk of his double plays, and play only 2 games a week for the tots from here on out. 
  shernisky is a superstar in this league, by far the most talented rookie ever to set foot in the sbl.  cream rises to the top, and if all things are equal down the stretch, expect sherry to put some distance between himself, knight, and the rest of the league over the final 3 weeks.
surprise:  7 teams are within 4 games of each other.  for the first time ever, the sbl has parity.

will it last?:  without a doubt.  breaking up the teammates who have played together for years -tomko/goodpastor and frankovich/moroco to name a few- has done both good and bad for the sbl.  it's taken away some of the interest generated by playing alongside close friends, but it has spread the talent around so evenly that now any team can win on any given day.
  just take the top 2 teams in the sbl, for example.  the ladies have lost 4 games to 4 seperate teams; analisa, koopa, jed and fupa.  team koopa troopa has lost 4 games to 4 seperate teams; analisa, the tots, fupa and jed. 
  it's nice to know, after seasons of having a huge gap between the top and the bottom, that nothing this season is a sure thing.



president 2005